• Issue 36

  • May 2018

The Source

Brexit Creates Tangible Difference to England’s Subnational Population Statistics

England’s population growth is estimated to increase more slowly than previous projections to 2026, according to new Office for National Statistics (ONS) 2016-based subnational population projections.

These are used as the starting point for household growth projections figures, due in summer 2018 and play a significant part in calculating local housing need.

Whilst the 2016 statistical release using 2014-based subnational population projections predicted growth of 7.5% between 2014 and 2024, the new figures show that England’s population is expected to grow by 5.9%, from 55.3 million in mid-2016 to 58.5 million in mid-2026.

This translates as an annual growth rate of 320,000 additional people a year according to 2016 figures, against annual anticipated growth of 356,000 a year in the 2014 figures and 347,000 a year in the 2012 projections.

Whilst London still has the highest regional growth rate at 8.8%, this is much lower than the 13.7% increase estimated between 2014 and 2024.

Evidently, the southern regions are predicted to grow faster than northern regions, with the North East showing the lowest growth at 1.9% over 10 years.

The statistician’s comment from Andrew Nash, of the ONS population projections unit stated: “While the overall populations of all regions in England are projected to increase over the next decade, reasons for these increases vary greatly depending on where you live.

“For instance, projected population change in London is mainly caused by natural change – the difference between the number of births and deaths – and not migration. This is because London’s net inflow of international migrants is offset by a similar number of people moving to other parts of the UK. That contrasts with the North East, where growth is mostly down to migration.

“What’s also clear is that the population is ageing in all regions, with the number of people aged 65 and over growing considerably faster than younger age groups.”