• Issue 40

  • Sep 2018

The Source

2016-based Household Projections For England

The Office for National Statistics have published the 2016-based household projections, having taken over the responsibility from MHCLG.

The number of households in England is projected to grow by a smaller amount than previously thought, thanks to amended assumptions regarding fertility, life expectancy and net migration. An average 159,000 additional households each year are projected for England the period between 2016 and 2041, with the previous projections indicating growth of 210,000 dwellings a year between 2014 and 2039.

The revised figures mean the total number of households in England is projected to rise from 22.9 million in 2016 to 26.9 million in 2041, an increase of 17%.

Households headed by someone aged 65 years and over are projected to increase by 54% by 2041, while those headed by someone aged under 65 years are projected to grow by just 3%. A total of 88% of the total growth of households in England between 2016 and 2041 is for households headed by someone aged 65 years and over.
The updated projections will now form the basis for estimating housing needs under the ‘standard method’ with a spokesman from the MHCLG having offered some clarification regarding future housing needs;

“We are reforming the planning system to ensure the housing market works for everyone…. We will consult on adjustments to the way housing need is calculated so it is consistent with delivering 300,000 new homes per year by the mid-2020s.”